On Monday evening Marylanders from all political persuasions will gather in Annapolis in support of marriage between a man and a woman. Alerts have gone out from Del. Neil Parrott and from Charles Lollar at New Day Maryland to be in Lawyers Mall on Monday, January 30th from 6-8 p.m. to stand in opposition to the gay marriage lobby and its leader Governor Martin O’Malley.
Fearing a referendum
Hagerstown Tea Party founder Parrott, who led the successful petition drive to get the Dream Act (taxpayer subsidy for college education for illegals) on the ballot in 2012, is reporting that the Governor, who must have wins on both the Dream Act and on Gay Marriage in order for his political career to advance, is actually attempting to find a way to make the Gay Marriage bill an appropriations bill not subject to the referendum process. Such a move by the Governor is a testament to his fear of the Parrott Petition machine where grassroots conservative activists stand ready to pound the pavement again looking for signatures.
The 2012 election implications for two hot button initiatives on the same ballot were discussed by blogger Todd Eberly at the FreeStater blog. Eberly is a political science professor at St. Mary’s College. (emphasis mine)
To understand the potential impact of these two measures on the 2012 vote one need only review the new poll from Gonzales Research. The poll finds voters evenly divided on both measures with 49% opposing the DREAM Act and 48% supporting it. On same-sex marriage 49% favor it and 47% oppose it. The more interesting results, however, come from the results among specific voting blocs.
Democrats (62%) and Independents (56%) support same-sex marriage, but 76% of Republicans oppose it. Independents and Republicans make-up 40% of the state’s electorate and the high level of opposition among Republicans coupled with the 4 in 10 Democrats and Independents opposed helps explain the state’s split support. The more interesting division, however, is between Democrats overall and black voters (nearly all of whom vote Democratic in Maryland). Though 62% of Democrats support same-sex marriage, nearly the same share – 60% – of black voters oppose it. This represents a significant division among the Democratic electorate.
Eberly goes on to discuss the US Senate race and how these issues might impact it. And, then says the following about Congressional Districts 6 and 8.
In the newly drawn 6th Congressional District, the ballot measures may save Roscoe Bartlett’s job. Based on a vote analysis of the prior and newly adopted congressional districts one would expect a Democrat to win the new 6th district in a presidential election year. But, increased turn-out by conservatives and social conservative would likely make the electorate more similar to the 2010 midterm. In that case, Bartlett may just squeak to victory – dashing Democratic plans to claim a new seat in Congress.
Turn-out by social conservatives and any degree of dissension within the ranks of key Democratic voting blocs could spell trouble for Chris Van Hollen and his newly drawn and decidedly less Democratic 8th district as well as Dutch Ruppersberger in the 2nd district where black voters are crucial to his reelection success.
In the end, Maryland is a democratic state. Republicans have won statewide elections only twice in the last 32 years. Odds favor a strong democratic showing in 2012, but do not discount the impact of these two ballot measure and their potential to disrupt what would otherwise be a boring election year in Maryland.
Read Eberly’s whole blog post, here.
Does O’Malley have it in for Rep. Chris Van Hollen?
I’ve been wondering. While the Dems are busy helping to cause friction between Republicans in the Presidential race (not that they need any help!), could the Dems have the same internal c*** going on? I know conventional wisdom is that O’Malley, in drawing the new district lines, wants to reclaim District 6 for the Dems (ugh! when I moved here 25 years ago, believe it or not, it was a Democratic district!), but why would O’Malley significantly weaken the 8th District and thus make it harder for Van Hollen to hold onto that seat?
It is also conventional wisdom that O’Malley wants to run for the US Presidency someday, but surely the fallback position has got to be Senator Barbara Mikulski’s seat for this career pol. Is it possible that he sees Van Hollen as his competition for the seat and has maneuvered to weaken him? Just wondering!
An afterthought: I just added FreeStater blog to our blog roll. Readers, you can visit Potomac Tea Party Report each day and then use the blog roll as your jumping off place to other websites—like Drudge. Maybe pick a handful of blogs or websites each day and just see what everyone is saying. One of my daily favorites is Gateway Pundit for example. If you think I’m missing some important blogs, please send links my way.